Analyzing Yuki Tsunoda’s Performance in Red Bull for Formula 1’s Japanese Grand Prix

Despite a slower car, Liam Lawson outqualified his Red Bull replacement, Yuki Tsunoda, for Formula 1’s Japanese Grand Prix. However, there are signs that Red Bull’s ruthless decision to demote Lawson might be working already.

Understanding the Challenges Faced by Yuki Tsunoda in His Debut Race

Leaving aside the controversy surrounding Red Bull’s decision to demote Lawson after two difficult races, what mattered most to the team was having a driver who could consistently score big points and boost their constructors’ hopes. If we focus on Saturday’s qualifying session in isolation, Tsunoda placed 15th in Q2 behind both Racing Bulls, including the driver he replaced.

Tsunoda had a poor start to his final lap, drifting out of the final chicane with an unstable Red Bull, which left him starting his flyer on the back foot. He then got out of shape in Turn 1. Afterwards, he admitted that not nailing the warm-up of the tyres cost him dearly.

In Q1, Tsunoda felt good, but he missed the optimal window. He also mentioned that the Red Bull’s narrow set-up window requires most things to be almost perfect, especially warm-up. In Q2 run two, he wasn’t able to perform the desired warm-up due to the previous run, which significantly impacted his performance in the end.

Tsunoda was disappointed about not making it to Q3, which had been his pre-weekend target. However, he shouldn’t feel any shame about how he acquitted himself across the weekend as a whole.

Yuki Tsunoda’s Performance Across the Weekend

Having been dropped into the car with no prior mileage in front of his home fans and Honda’s watchful eye, on one of F1’s most difficult circuits, the pressure on Tsunoda was immense. However, if he was feeling any of it, he didn’t show it throughout the weekend.

He ran team-mate Verstappen close in the first free practice, with the usual caveat of unknown engine modes. Like others, he was derailed by FP2’s four red flags, which limited his running.

Tsunoda’s Adaptation to the Red Bull Car

Having felt no weird behavior from the RB21 in the Milton Keynes simulator last week, the on-the-knife-edge behavior of Red Bull’s 2025 machine did catch him off guard once he was afforded first-hand experience. But, while Lawson felt he needed much more time to adjust, which he cruelly wasn’t afforded, Tsunoda seemed to cope relatively well already.

The Red Bull not only has a narrower set-up window than the Racing Bulls lineage of cars that the 24-year-old is accustomed to, but its on-the-nose behavior means it is much more unstable, something Verstappen has also complained about despite his stunning pole position.

Tsunoda acknowledged that the car is on the edge with the rear but felt relatively okay with the stability. He mentioned that he was learning to drive the car in a way that performs well, although it wasn’t enough in the end to put it all together.

Team Principal Christian Horner’s View on Tsunoda’s Performance

Team principal Christian Horner, who had long been reluctant to promote Tsunoda, also sounded more impressed than he had previously been. He acknowledged that Tsunoda was within a tenth in Q1 and building nicely, but unfortunately, he didn’t go quicker in Q2 and had a big moment at the start of his lap.

By the time you’ve given away three, four tenths, you’re never going to get that back around here, so it was a shame because the qualifying doesn’t represent the job that he’s done up until this point. He then expanded to Sky: “I think he would have comfortably made the top 10 today. Up to that point, I think he’s actually done very well, and I was pleased to see Liam settling in well as well at Racing Bulls.

Lawson was disappointed as well, claiming 14th on the grid while team-mate Isack Hadjar took a superb seventh. But Lawson also demonstrated much more promise in his first competitive outing in the Racing Bulls than the Q2 result showed, and most certainly felt much more at ease than on his two disastrous weekends with Red Bull.

Poetically, Lawson and Tsunoda will encounter each other on the grid on Sunday, starting from 14th and 15th respectively. But Lawson shrugged off any extra significance to having ‘his’ Red Bull starting behind him with Tsunoda at the wheel: “No, it’s just another car. I mean, with tomorrow’s weather it’s going to be an exciting enough race probably, so I’ll just be focused on trying to get a good start and moving forward.

In the past, Tsunoda repeatedly wondered why he hadn’t been promoted to Red Bull. And, while he has belatedly been handed his dream move in difficult circumstances, he has now also woken up to the harsh reality of just how hard the Red Bull is to drive and set up, and perhaps how easy Verstappen has made it look despite the Dutchman’s own gripes.

But from day one – and it admittedly is a very small sample size – it doesn’t seem like Tsunoda is wrestling with the Red Bull’s typical weaknesses to the same extent that Lawson or other drivers in that seat have.

Tsunoda concluded after setting aside his initial disappointment: “The positive thing is I started to understand the car. It’s quite difficult to operate this car properly, it’s quite narrow, but at least I feel confidence in the car, and I know what to do for the future. I finished the Q2 with finally reading the whole textbook about the Red Bull, you know what I mean?

Make no mistake, Tsunoda still has his work cut out to make his dream move work and really make the seat his own. But if you look past Q2 alone, his baseline pace has already been stronger than his predecessor, and so has his confidence in the car.